Search results for "general equilibrium"

Towards an Agent-Based Model for the Analysis of Macroeconomic Signals

2020

This work introduces an agent-based model for the analysis of macroeconomic signals. The Bottom-up Adaptive Model (BAM) deploys a closed Walrasian economy where three types of agents (households, firms and banks) interact in three markets (goods, labor and credit) producing some signals of interest, e.g., unemployment rate, GDP, inflation, wealth distribution, etc. Agents are bounded rational, i.e., their behavior is defined in terms of simple rules finitely searching for the best salary, the best price, and the lowest interest rate in the corresponding markets, under incomplete information. The markets define fixed protocols of interaction adopted by the agents. The observed signals are em…

Bicausative matrices to measure structural change: Are they a good tool?

1999

The causative-matrix method to analyze temporal change assumes that a matrix transforms one Markovian transition matrix into another by a left multiplication of the first matrix; the method is demand-driven when applied to input-output economics. An extension is presented without assuming the demand-driven or supply-driven hypothesis. Starting from two flow matrices X and Y, two diagonal matrices are searched, one premultiplying and the second postmultiplying X, to obtain a result the closer as possible to Y by least squares. The paper proves that the method is deceptive because the diagonal matrices are unidentified and the interpretation of results is unclear. Keywords : Input-Output ; Ch…

Forecast Output Coincidence and Biproportion: Two Criteria to Determine the Orientation of an Economy. Comparison for France (1980-1997)

2002

International audience; The method of forecast output coincidence used to determine if sectors are demand-sided or supply-sided in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply side models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-sided (but one cannot decide that it is demand-sided anyway), and …

A biproportional filter to compare technical and allocation coefficient variations

1997

International audience; In input-output analysis there are two alternate possibilities between Leontief's mechanism (fixed technical coefficients) and Ghosh's mechanism (fixed allocation coefficients). Testing the long term consistency of these mechanisms entails comparing input-output matrices over time. This paper challenges the value of proportional filters (separate comparison of column and row coefficients) and introduces the biproportional filter which allows simultaneous comparison of column and rows. An application is proposed using French input-output tables for 1980 and 1993. The stability of column coefficients cannot be taken for granted and generally, for any sector, both rows …

KLUM@GTAP: SPATIALLY EXPLICIT, BIOPHYSICAL LAND USE IN A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

2009

The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

2006

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “marke…

A global perspective on effectiveness of aid for trade

2013

Recent global initiatives on debt relief and development assistance call for increasing aid for trade to the poorest countries. The paper applies a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to measure the effectiveness of alternative aid for trade categories. The findings show that aid for trade policies expand trade and alleviate international income inequalities in the recipient countries, that will benefit mainly from aid for trade adjustment and technical assistance.

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

2004

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highl…

The economic impact of water taxes: a computable general equilibrium analysis with an international data set

2008

Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument for improving the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that the impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use and lead to shifts in production, consumption and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonethele…

An Assessment of Carousel Value-Added Tax Fraud in The European Carbon Market

2017

AbstractThe literature on the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is by now very rich. Much is known about the efficiency, the effectiveness, and the environmental and distributional impacts of the EU ETS. Less, however, is known about the carousel value-added-tax (VAT) fraud phenomena in the European carbon market. This article evaluates the welfare effects of carousel VAT fraud in the EU ETS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. According to our findings, if VAT fraud occurs in the EU ETS, the effects on welfare for the EU Member States are negative, with welfare loss significantly higher than the VAT fraud value. This article also discusses the reverse charge…